Gent vs RAAL La Louvière – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Gent (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gent face RAAL La Louvière.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees RAAL La Louvière travel to Planet Group Arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gent stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gent's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Planet Group Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Planet Group Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, RAAL La Louvière have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, RAAL La Louvière have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Gent are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gent, 0 for RAAL La Louvière and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Gent winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gent trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RAAL La Louvière trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 51% versus RAAL La Louvière 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 49% | RAAL La Louvière 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.73 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.068 / defence 0.716 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.852 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.362. Gent's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Gent games / 34 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 59% | Draw 24% | RAAL La Louvière 18%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | RAAL La Louvière 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Gent (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gent 30% | RAAL La Louvière 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 59% | Draw 24% | RAAL La Louvière 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Gent 1.73 / RAAL La Louvière 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.068 / def 0.716 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.852 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Gent (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.83
RAAL La Louvière xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Gent vs RAAL La Louvière is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Planet Group Arena.
Where is Gent vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Gent vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 59% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gent and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and RAAL La Louvière?
Record (3 meetings): Gent 2W | Draws 1 | RAAL La Louvière 0W.
What form are Gent and RAAL La Louvière in?
Gent (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against RAAL La Louvière's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, RAAL La Louvière's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.25
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gent xG
Total xG
2.56
0.83
RAAL La Louvière xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
31.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gent and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gent and 0.83 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs RAAL La Louvière?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Gent have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 16W 12D 13L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RAAL La Louvière's form line: 7W 14D 20L from 41 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Gent are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RAAL La Louvière.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gent have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 3W 6D 12L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 0.95 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Early Season
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 16W 12D 13L in their last 41 games (1.46 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 7W 14D 20L in their last 41 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Gent's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.71 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Gent
1
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and RAAL La Louvière?
From 3 meetings on record, Gent have won 2, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gent and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when RAAL La Louvière 1-2 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and RAAL La Louvière?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 43%, RAAL La Louvière 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gent) and 67% (RAAL La Louvière).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Gent have failed to score in 29% of games; RAAL La Louvière in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play RAAL La Louvière?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gent's recent matches and 62% of RAAL La Louvière's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gent's recent games and 67% of RAAL La Louvière's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.