Gent 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gent welcome Antwerp to Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gent have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Gent have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Antwerp stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antwerp's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Gent are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Gent, 2 for Antwerp and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended Gent 2–2 Antwerp — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gent in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 62% versus Antwerp 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 58% | Antwerp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.50 xG and Antwerp 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.213 / defence 1.046 | Antwerp attack 0.939 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.120. Antwerp bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Gent's projected output down. Data: built from Gent's last 34 games and Antwerp's last 35.
Result probabilities: Gent 46% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 28%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.15 | Draw 3.88 | Antwerp 3.60. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Gent's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gent 70% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 46% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Gent 1.50 / Antwerp 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.213 / def 1.046 | Antwerp attack 0.939 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Gent (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Antwerp xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gent vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Gent vs Antwerp kick off?
Gent vs Antwerp kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Antwerp?
Gent 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Gent vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Antwerp part of?
Gent vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 46% chance of winning, Antwerp a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gent and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gent vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gent's attack at 1.21x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gent's last 34 games and Antwerp's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.88
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Gent xG
Total xG
2.60
1.10
Antwerp xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gent vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gent and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Gent and 1.10 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 11D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.42 PPG from 45 outings (18W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.78 PPG, Antwerp on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gent's home form reads 12W 6D 4L across their last 22 home games, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gent have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
Gent (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gent
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Gent vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Gent and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Antwerp away?
Gent's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.91 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Gent or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Antwerp in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 14 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 May 2025, when Antwerp won Gent 0-3 Antwerp.
Gent's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gent
3
Draws
4
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Gent vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gent have won 3, Antwerp have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2025: Gent 0-2 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 77%, Antwerp 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Gent and 46% for Antwerp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 32%; Antwerp in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gent vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gent and Antwerp matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Gent's games and 36% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gent and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Gent's matches and 46% of Antwerp's.
Do Gent and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Gent's recent matches and 73% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent and Antwerp finished level at 1-1 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.50 xG and Antwerp 1.10 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.21 / defence 1.05 against Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 0.76, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 46% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 28%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 58%, Antwerp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.78 PPG, Antwerp 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.