Genk 4-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Genk welcome Beerschot VA to Cegeka Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Genk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beerschot VA in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Genk, 1 for Beerschot VA and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Beerschot VA winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Genk in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus Beerschot VA 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 60% | Beerschot VA 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.03 xG and Beerschot VA 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.193 / defence 1.136 | Beerschot VA attack 0.620 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.534. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Genk games / 20 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 59% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 20%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Beerschot VA 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Genk (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Beerschot VA 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 59% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Genk 2.03 / Beerschot VA 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.193 / def 1.136 | Beerschot VA attack 0.620 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Genk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Beerschot VA xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Genk vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Genk 4 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Genk vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Beerschot VA part of?
Genk vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 59% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Genk and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Beerschot VA?
Record (1 meetings): Genk 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Genk and Beerschot VA in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genk's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.74
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Genk xG
Total xG
3.11
1.08
Beerschot VA xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
3%
38.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Genk and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Genk and 1.08 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Genk have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 8W 4D 8L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA's form line: 2W 3D 15L from 20 games, 0.45 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beerschot VA.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 0.75 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Beerschot VA in 30%.
Last 20 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 2W 3D 15L in their last 20 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Beerschot VA away?
Genk's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.67 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genk and Beerschot VA runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Genk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2022, when Genk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Genk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Beerschot VA?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 56%, Beerschot VA 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Genk) and 56% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Genk's games and 67% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Genk's matches and 56% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Genk and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Beerschot VA 4-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.03 xG and Beerschot VA 1.08 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.19 / defence 1.14 against Beerschot VA attack 0.62 / defence 1.44, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 59% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 20%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 60%, Beerschot VA 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.