Genk 1-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Genk welcome Beerschot VA to Cegeka Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Genk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Genk, 1 for Beerschot VA and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 4–3 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Genk in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 51% versus Beerschot VA 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 58% | Beerschot VA 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.87 xG and Beerschot VA 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.308 / defence 0.783 | Beerschot VA attack 0.767 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.107. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genk's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Genk games / 23 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 81% | Draw 15% | Beerschot VA 4%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.23 | Draw 6.67 | Beerschot VA 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Genk (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genk 40% | Beerschot VA 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 81% | Draw 15% | Beerschot VA 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 47% | xG Genk 2.87 / Beerschot VA 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.308 / def 0.783 | Beerschot VA attack 0.767 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Genk (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Beerschot VA xG
47%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Genk vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Genk 1 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Genk vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Beerschot VA part of?
Genk vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 81% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 4% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genk and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): Genk 2W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Genk and Beerschot VA in?
Genk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genk's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.87. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.5%), 4-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
81%
1.24
15%
6.70
4%
22.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Genk xG
Total xG
3.53
0.66
Beerschot VA xG
1.24
81%
Home win
6.70
15%
Draw
22.94
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
6%
17.55
Win to Nil
42%
2.41
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Genk and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Genk and 0.66 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Genk have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 28W 9D 16L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA's form line: 19W 12D 22L from 53 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beerschot VA.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.23 PPG from 26 outings (18W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 10W 2D 14L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.26 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 28W 9D 16L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Beerschot VA away?
Genk's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.23 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Genk or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genk and Beerschot VA runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Genk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2022, when Genk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Genk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Beerschot VA?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 38%, Beerschot VA 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Genk) and 65% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Genk's recent matches and 54% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Genk's matches and 65% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Genk and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Beerschot VA 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Beerschot VA 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.87 xG and Beerschot VA 0.66 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.31 / defence 0.78 against Beerschot VA attack 0.77 / defence 1.44, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 81% | Draw 15% | Beerschot VA 4%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, Beerschot VA 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.