Genk 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face Genk in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 6). The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Genk have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Genk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Genk. A 1.00 PPG lead over Antwerp (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Genk edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2025, ended Genk 1–1 Antwerp — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 52% versus Antwerp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 53% | Antwerp 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.35 xG and Antwerp 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.130 / defence 0.778 | Antwerp attack 0.838 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Genk have a tight defence (rating 0.778), which is pulling Antwerp's projected output down. Data: built from Genk's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60.
Result probabilities: Genk 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.02 | Draw 3.08 | Antwerp 5.57. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genk 40% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Genk 1.35 / Antwerp 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.130 / def 0.778 | Antwerp attack 0.838 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Genk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Antwerp xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Genk vs Antwerp kick off?
Genk vs Antwerp kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Genk 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Genk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Antwerp part of?
Genk vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 50% chance of winning, Antwerp a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Genk and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Genk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.13) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.84x) against Genk's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
50%
2.02
32%
3.08
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Genk xG
Total xG
2.08
0.73
Antwerp xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Genk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Genk and 0.73 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genk's recent record stands at 38W 18D 19L from 75 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 28W 22D 25L across 75 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Genk against 1.41 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genk have managed 23W 9D 5L from their last 37 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 10W 13D 14L across their last 37 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.49 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
Genk (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 38W 18D 19L in their last 75 games (1.76 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 28W 22D 25L in their last 75 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Antwerp away?
Genk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.11 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Genk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Antwerp in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 3-0 Genk on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Antwerp have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Antwerp 4-4 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Antwerp?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 43%, Antwerp 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Genk) and 40% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Antwerp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Genk's recent matches and 49% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Genk's recent games and 40% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Genk's recent matches and 73% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Genk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Genk 0-1 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.35 xG and Antwerp 0.73 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Antwerp attack 0.84 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Antwerp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 53%, Antwerp 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.76 PPG, Antwerp 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.