Dender 1-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Genk travel to Dender Football Complex to take on Dender. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Dender have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Dender Football Complex this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dender Football Complex this season.
Genk — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dender 1.30 PPG, Genk 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Genk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Dender's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Genk winning.
It is worth noting that Genk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Dender trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Genk trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 56% versus Genk 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 53% | Genk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.19 xG and Genk 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.818 / defence 1.209 | Genk attack 0.984 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.210. Data: 52 Dender games / 52 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 31% | Draw 27% | Genk 42%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Genk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Dender 40% | Genk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 31% | Draw 27% | Genk 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Dender 1.19 / Genk 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.818 / def 1.209 | Genk attack 0.984 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Genk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Genk xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Genk kick off?
Dender vs Genk kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Genk?
Dender 1 - 2 Genk.
Where is Dender vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Genk part of?
Dender vs Genk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 31% chance of winning, Genk a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dender and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): Dender 0W | Draws 0 | Genk 3W.
What form are Dender and Genk in?
Dender (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Genk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.82) and Genk's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
31%
3.28
27%
3.68
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Dender xG
Total xG
2.63
1.44
Genk xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dender and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Dender and 1.44 for Genk, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Dender have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 20D 28L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk's form line: 31W 14D 17L from 62 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dender have posted 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (8W 11D 12L).
On the road, Genk have gone 13W 8D 10L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.58 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Genk in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 14W 20D 28L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while Genk have gone 31W 14D 17L in their last 62 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.13 PPG; Genk away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Genk won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dender
0
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Genk?
From 4 meetings on record, Dender have won 0, Genk have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Dender 1-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 45%, Genk 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dender) and 64% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dender have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Dender's games and 71% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dender's recent games and 64% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Genk tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Dender 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Dender 1-2 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.19 xG and Genk 1.44 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.82 / defence 1.21 against Genk attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 31% | Draw 27% | Genk 42%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Genk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.