Dender 0-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Genk travel to DENDER Football Complex to take on Dender. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Dender have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dender's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at DENDER Football Complex this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Dender are significantly better at DENDER Football Complex than their overall form suggests.
Genk — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genk's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Genk are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dender have won 0, Genk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–4 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dender trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Genk trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 57% versus Genk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 53% | Genk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 0.95 xG and Genk 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.661 / defence 1.084 | Genk attack 1.211 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.115. Dender's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Dender games / 58 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 22% | Draw 32% | Genk 46%. Fair-value odds: Dender 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Genk 2.17. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Dender 50% | Genk 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 22% | Draw 32% | Genk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Dender 0.95 / Genk 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.661 / def 1.084 | Genk attack 1.211 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Genk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Genk xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Genk kick off?
Dender vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Genk?
Dender 0 - 1 Genk.
Where is Dender vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Genk part of?
Dender vs Genk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 22% chance of winning, Genk a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dender and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Genk?
Record (1 meetings): Dender 0W | Draws 0 | Genk 1W.
What form are Dender and Genk in?
Dender (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Genk (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.66) and Genk's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
22%
4.65
32%
3.10
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Dender xG
Total xG
2.41
1.46
Genk xG
4.65
22%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
5%
20.07
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dender and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Dender and 1.46 for Genk, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Dender have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 23W 17D 18L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 31W 11D 16L from 58 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dender on 1.48 PPG, Genk on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dender have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
On the road, Genk have gone 11W 6D 12L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.57 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Genk in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 23W 17D 18L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Genk have gone 31W 11D 16L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Genk away?
Dender's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.48 PPG; Genk away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Dender or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Genk won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dender
0
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Genk?
From 4 meetings on record, Dender have won 0, Genk have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Dender 1-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 55%, Genk 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Dender) and 62% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Dender's games and 66% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Dender's recent games and 62% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Genk tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Genk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Dender 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Dender 0-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.95 xG and Genk 1.46 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dender fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against Genk attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 22% | Draw 32% | Genk 46%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Genk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.48 PPG, Genk 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.