Dender 0-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dender at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and Beerschot VA meet at DENDER Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Dender (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dender's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Beerschot VA have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beerschot VA's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Dender's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Beerschot VA's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Dender edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Dender 2–1 Beerschot VA — a Dender win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dender — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 57% versus Beerschot VA 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | Beerschot VA 59%). Note also that Beerschot VA surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Dender recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.724 / defence 1.148 | Beerschot VA attack 0.816 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.130. Dender's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Beerschot VA's defence rating of 1.359 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dender's projected output up. Data: built from Dender's last 26 games and Beerschot VA's last 26.
Result probabilities: Dender 45% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 25%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.22 | Draw 3.29 | Beerschot VA 4.06. Dender hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dender at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dender if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dender 50% (last 10 home games) | Beerschot VA 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 45% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Dender 1.50 / Beerschot VA 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.724 / def 1.148 | Beerschot VA attack 0.816 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Dender (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Beerschot VA xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs Beerschot VA FAQs
What time does Dender vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Dender vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Dender 0 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Dender vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Beerschot VA part of?
Dender vs Beerschot VA is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 45% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dender and Beerschot VA will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dender vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.72) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.82x) against Dender's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 26 games and Beerschot VA's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.29
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Dender xG
Total xG
2.55
1.06
Beerschot VA xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs Beerschot VA Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dender and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Dender and 1.06 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dender's recent record stands at 23W 16D 17L from 56 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 24L across 56 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Dender against 1.25 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dender have managed 11W 9D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 10W 2D 16L across their last 28 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dender are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
Dender (Home) vs Beerschot VA (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Dender vs Beerschot VA Form FAQs
What form are Dender and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 23W 16D 17L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Beerschot VA away?
Dender's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.50 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Dender or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Dender
3
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs Beerschot VA H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Beerschot VA?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Beerschot VA last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Dender 2-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Beerschot VA?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 57%, Beerschot VA 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dender) and 64% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs Beerschot VA Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and Beerschot VA matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dender's games and 54% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dender and Beerschot VA matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Dender's matches and 64% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Dender and Beerschot VA matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Dender's recent matches and 71% of Beerschot VA's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dender's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 27, as Dender and Beerschot VA drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.06 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dender fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.72 / defence 1.15 against Beerschot VA attack 0.82 / defence 1.36, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 45% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 25%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, Beerschot VA 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.52 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.