Club Brugge KV 2-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Club Brugge KV at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Charleroi travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Club Brugge KV. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Club Brugge KV stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Club Brugge KV's home record at Jan Breydelstadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Breydelstadion.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Club Brugge KV 1.80 PPG, Charleroi 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Club Brugge KV, 0 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Club Brugge KV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Club Brugge KV trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge KV 62% versus Charleroi 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge KV 58% | Charleroi 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge KV 1.70 xG and Charleroi 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge KV attack 1.185 / defence 0.947 | Charleroi attack 1.028 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.442. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Club Brugge KV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Club Brugge KV games / 26 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 45% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge KV 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 3.12. Club Brugge KV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Club Brugge KV 50% | Charleroi 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 45% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Club Brugge KV 1.70 / Charleroi 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge KV attack 1.185 / def 0.947 | Charleroi attack 1.028 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Club Brugge KV xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Charleroi xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi kick off?
Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Club Brugge KV 2 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi part of?
Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge KV a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Club Brugge KV and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): Club Brugge KV 1W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi in?
Club Brugge KV (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Club Brugge KV's attack at 1.19x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Club Brugge KV's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
45%
2.24
24%
4.25
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Club Brugge KV xG
Total xG
3.11
1.40
Charleroi xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 1.40 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Club Brugge KV come into this having played 26 games, going 13W 9D 4L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.65 PPG from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Club Brugge KV on 1.85 PPG, Charleroi on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Club Brugge KV's home form reads 6W 6D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.85 points per game from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Club Brugge KV are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.62 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Club Brugge KV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charleroi in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge KV
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Club Brugge KV have gone 13W 9D 4L in their last 26 games (1.85 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge KV at home or Charleroi away?
Club Brugge KV's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge KV at home: 1.85 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Club Brugge KV or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Charleroi in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Club Brugge KV have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Club Brugge KV's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Club Brugge KV
2
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Club Brugge KV have won 8, Charleroi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge KV and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge KV 62%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Club Brugge KV and 85% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge KV home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Club Brugge KV play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Club Brugge KV's games and 54% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Club Brugge KV's matches and 85% of Charleroi's.
Do Club Brugge KV and Charleroi tend to score early?
Club Brugge KV have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge KV cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 2-0 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 1.70 xG and Charleroi 1.40 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Charleroi attack 1.03 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 45% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 32%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 58%, Charleroi 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Club Brugge KV 1.85 PPG, Charleroi 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge KV win broke the near-deadlock. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.