Club Brugge KV 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Charleroi travel to Jan Breydel Stadion to take on Club Brugge KV. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Club Brugge KV stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Club Brugge KV's home record at Jan Breydel Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Club Brugge KV are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Club Brugge KV have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Charleroi have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 4–2 with Club Brugge KV winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Club Brugge KV and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Club Brugge KV trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Charleroi trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge KV 57% versus Charleroi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge KV 54% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge KV 2.21 xG and Charleroi 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge KV attack 1.319 / defence 1.062 | Charleroi attack 1.123 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.027. Club Brugge KV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Club Brugge KV games / 44 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 58% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge KV 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Charleroi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Club Brugge KV (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Club Brugge KV 50% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jan Breydel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 58% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Club Brugge KV 2.21 / Charleroi 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge KV attack 1.319 / def 1.062 | Charleroi attack 1.123 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Club Brugge KV xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Charleroi xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi kick off?
Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Jan Breydel Stadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Club Brugge KV 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydel Stadion.
What competition is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi part of?
Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge KV a 58% chance of winning, Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Club Brugge KV and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
Record (8 meetings): Club Brugge KV 6W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi in?
Club Brugge KV (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Club Brugge KV's attack at 1.32x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Club Brugge KV's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.30
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Club Brugge KV xG
Total xG
3.44
1.23
Charleroi xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
2%
48.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 1.23 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Club Brugge KV come into this having played 54 games, going 33W 12D 9L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.46 PPG from 54 outings (22W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Club Brugge KV's home form reads 18W 5D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Club Brugge KV are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.39 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge KV
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Club Brugge KV have gone 33W 12D 9L in their last 54 games (2.06 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge KV at home or Charleroi away?
Club Brugge KV's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge KV at home: 2.27 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Club Brugge KV or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Charleroi in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Club Brugge KV have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Club Brugge KV's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Club Brugge KV
2
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Club Brugge KV have won 8, Charleroi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge KV and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge KV 58%, Charleroi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Club Brugge KV) and 54% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charleroi in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge KV home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Club Brugge KV play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Club Brugge KV's games and 62% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Club Brugge KV's recent games and 54% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Club Brugge KV and Charleroi tend to score early?
Club Brugge KV have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 1-0 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 2.21 xG and Charleroi 1.23 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Club Brugge KV fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.32 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 1.12 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 58% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 19%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 54%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.