Club Brugge KV 4-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Club Brugge KV at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Club Brugge KV host Antwerp at Jan Breydelstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Club Brugge KV have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Jan Breydelstadion, Club Brugge KV have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Breydelstadion.
Antwerp — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Antwerp's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Club Brugge KV at 1.80 PPG versus Antwerp's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Club Brugge KV in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge KV 61% versus Antwerp 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge KV 57% | Antwerp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge KV 1.08 xG and Antwerp 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge KV attack 1.172 / defence 0.900 | Antwerp attack 0.863 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.350. Data: 28 Club Brugge KV games / 28 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 36% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 34%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge KV 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Antwerp 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Club Brugge KV 50% | Antwerp 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 36% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Club Brugge KV 1.08 / Antwerp 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge KV attack 1.172 / def 0.900 | Antwerp attack 0.863 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Club Brugge KV xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Antwerp xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp kick off?
Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
Club Brugge KV 4 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp part of?
Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge KV a 36% chance of winning, Antwerp a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Club Brugge KV and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Club Brugge KV and Antwerp in?
Club Brugge KV (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Antwerp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Club Brugge KV's attack rating (1.17) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Club Brugge KV's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
36%
2.81
31%
3.26
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Club Brugge KV xG
Total xG
2.13
1.05
Antwerp xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Club Brugge KV and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 1.05 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Club Brugge KV's recent record stands at 15W 9D 4L from 28 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 7L across 28 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Club Brugge KV on 1.93 PPG, Antwerp on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Club Brugge KV have managed 7W 6D 1L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 9W 2D 3L across 14 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Club Brugge KV are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.71 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Club Brugge KV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Antwerp in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge KV
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Club Brugge KV and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Club Brugge KV have gone 15W 9D 4L in their last 28 games (1.93 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 16W 5D 7L in their last 28 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge KV at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge KV at home: 1.93 PPG; Antwerp away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Club Brugge KV or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Antwerp in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2024, when Club Brugge KV won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Club Brugge KV's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Club Brugge KV
1
Draws
3
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Club Brugge KV have won 6, Antwerp have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge KV and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Club Brugge KV 0-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge KV and Antwerp?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge KV 57%, Antwerp 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Club Brugge KV) and 43% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Antwerp in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge KV home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Club Brugge KV play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Club Brugge KV's games and 57% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Club Brugge KV's recent games and 43% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Club Brugge KV and Antwerp tend to score early?
Club Brugge KV have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Club Brugge KV run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Antwerp 4-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 1.08 xG and Antwerp 1.05 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Club Brugge KV beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Antwerp attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 36% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 34%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 57%, Antwerp 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Club Brugge KV 1.93 PPG, Antwerp 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge KV win broke the near-deadlock. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.