Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 8 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Charleroi.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Union St. Gilloise 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 41% | Union St. Gilloise 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.30 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.156 / defence 0.883 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.425 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.362. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 34 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 47%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Union St. Gilloise 2.13. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Union St. Gilloise lead the H2H ledger, but Charleroi carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Charleroi 1.30 / Union St. Gilloise 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.156 / def 0.883 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.425 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Union St. Gilloise xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Charleroi 2 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 29% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (9 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 8W.
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charleroi's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
29%
3.43
24%
4.22
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.01
1.71
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.71 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 18W 9D 17L from 44 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 4L across 44 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 9W 9D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.75 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 12D 4L in their last 44 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.36 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
9
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 59%, Union St. Gilloise 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charleroi) and 41% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 32%; Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Charleroi's games and 54% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charleroi's recent games and 41% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Charleroi 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 2-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.30 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.71 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.43 / defence 0.74, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 47%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 41%, Union St. Gilloise 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.