Charleroi 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Charleroi face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Charleroi have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union St. Gilloise away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.80 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Charleroi's games and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's (from Charleroi's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Charleroi.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Charleroi 1–3 Union St. Gilloise — a Union St. Gilloise win.
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 59% and Union St. Gilloise 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 55% | Union St. Gilloise 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Union St. Gilloise have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.45 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.070 / defence 1.106 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.316 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.300. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack rating of 1.316, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Data: built from Charleroi's last 49 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 50.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 27% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 46%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.68 | Draw 3.69 | Union St. Gilloise 2.19. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.45 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 90% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 27% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Charleroi 1.45 / Union St. Gilloise 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.070 / def 1.106 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.316 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Union St. Gilloise xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Charleroi 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 27% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charleroi's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 49 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
27%
3.68
27%
3.69
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.34
1.89
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
15%
6.63
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
4%
24.37
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.89 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 18W 11D 20L from 49 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 33W 9D 7L across 49 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 10W 5D 8L from their last 23 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 15W 6D 2L across their last 23 away games, a 2.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 67%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 33W 9D 7L in their last 49 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Feb 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won Charleroi 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Charleroi's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
9
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charleroi at 65%, Union St. Gilloise at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charleroi) and 61% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Charleroi's games and 74% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Charleroi's matches and 61% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Charleroi's recent matches and 87% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 1-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.45 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.89 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.32 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 27% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 46%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 55%, Union St. Gilloise 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.