Charleroi 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 2.10 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Charleroi, 2 for St. Truiden and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 57% and St. Truiden 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 49% | St. Truiden 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.64 xG and St. Truiden 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.966 / defence 0.974 | St. Truiden attack 1.023 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.082. Data: 31 Charleroi games / 31 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 21%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | St. Truiden 4.76. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | St. Truiden 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Charleroi 1.64 / St. Truiden 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.966 / def 0.974 | St. Truiden attack 1.023 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
St. Truiden xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs St. Truiden kick off?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Charleroi vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs St. Truiden part of?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 47% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Charleroi and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Record (8 meetings): Charleroi 4W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in?
Charleroi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.17
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.72
1.08
St. Truiden xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.08 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 11D 12L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.43 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charleroi's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.43 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 73%.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or St. Truiden away?
Charleroi's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.82 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 53%, St. Truiden 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charleroi) and 71% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Charleroi's games and 76% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Charleroi's matches and 71% of St. Truiden's.
Do Charleroi and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 2, as Charleroi and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.64 xG and St. Truiden 1.08 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against St. Truiden attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 21%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 49%, St. Truiden 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, St. Truiden 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.