Charleroi 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charleroi face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Charleroi have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
OH Leuven (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, OH Leuven have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Charleroi, 1.70 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 58% versus OH Leuven 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 61% | OH Leuven 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while OH Leuven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.52 xG and OH Leuven 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.973 / defence 0.974 | OH Leuven attack 1.035 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.355. Data: built from Charleroi's last 33 games and OH Leuven's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 33%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.48 | Draw 3.81 | OH Leuven 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charleroi 40% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Charleroi 33 games, OH Leuven 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Charleroi 1.52 / OH Leuven 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.973 / def 0.974 | OH Leuven attack 1.035 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.37
OH Leuven xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.97x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (1.03x) against Charleroi's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 33 games and OH Leuven's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.81
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.89
1.37
OH Leuven xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.37 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 14W 6D 13L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 12W 9D 12L from 33 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Charleroi against 1.36 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 16 home games (7W 2D 7L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 4D 7L from their last 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 61%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Pre-Season
OH Leuven
Pre-Season
Charleroi (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Pre-Season
OH Leuven
Pre-Season
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 6D 13L in their last 33 games (1.45 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Charleroi and OH Leuven, the earliest from February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 56%, OH Leuven 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Charleroi and 62% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and OH Leuven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Charleroi's games and 62% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Charleroi's matches and 62% of OH Leuven's.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Charleroi's recent matches and 69% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and OH Leuven finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.52 xG and OH Leuven 1.37 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against OH Leuven attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 33%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 61%, OH Leuven 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.45 PPG, OH Leuven 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.