Charleroi 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Charleroi against 1.50 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charleroi, 0 for Kortrijk and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 46% versus Kortrijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 64% | Kortrijk 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.95 xG and Kortrijk 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.750 / defence 1.015 | Kortrijk attack 0.834 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.510. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Charleroi games / 22 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 44%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Kortrijk 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 30% | Kortrijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Charleroi 0.95 / Kortrijk 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.750 / def 1.015 | Kortrijk attack 0.834 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Kortrijk xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Kortrijk kick off?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Charleroi vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Kortrijk part of?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 28% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Charleroi and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Kortrijk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.75) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.83x) against Charleroi's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.52
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.23
1.28
Kortrijk xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.28 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 5L across 22 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.50 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 3W 5D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.32 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 8W 9D 5L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Kortrijk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.36 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Charleroi have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
3
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 6, Kortrijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2024, when Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 27%, Kortrijk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Charleroi) and 36% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Charleroi's recent matches and 54% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Charleroi's recent games and 36% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 24, as Charleroi and Kortrijk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.95 xG and Kortrijk 1.28 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Kortrijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 28% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 44%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 64%, Kortrijk 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Kortrijk 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.