Charleroi 1-1 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Club Brugge KV — this Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Club Brugge KV travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Club Brugge KV — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Club Brugge KV's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.90 PPG, Club Brugge KV 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Club Brugge KV have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Charleroi.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Charleroi 1–4 Club Brugge KV — a Club Brugge KV win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Club Brugge KV have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Club Brugge KV in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Club Brugge KV 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 46% | Club Brugge KV 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.30 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.921 / defence 0.734 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.308 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.170. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack rating of 1.308, which lifts their away xG to 1.12. Charleroi have a tight defence (rating 0.734), which is pulling Club Brugge KV's projected output down. Data: built from Charleroi's last 38 games and Club Brugge KV's last 38.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 31%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.57 | Draw 3.29 | Club Brugge KV 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Club Brugge KV's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Charleroi 20% (last 10 home games) | Club Brugge KV 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 27 September 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Charleroi 1.30 / Club Brugge KV 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.921 / def 0.734 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.308 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Club Brugge KV xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 39% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charleroi and Club Brugge KV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.92) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 38 games and Club Brugge KV's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.29
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.42
1.12
Club Brugge KV xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.12 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 10D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 1.77 PPG from 44 outings (22W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charleroi's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.89 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Club Brugge KV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 22W 12D 10L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Charleroi's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.73 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Club Brugge KV have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won Charleroi 1-4 Club Brugge KV.
Charleroi's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
2
Draws
8
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 0, Club Brugge KV have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Club Brugge KV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charleroi) and 64% (Club Brugge KV).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Club Brugge KV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 64% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charleroi's recent games and 64% of Club Brugge KV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Club Brugge KV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Charleroi's recent matches and 73% of Club Brugge KV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Club Brugge KV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 9, as Charleroi and Club Brugge KV drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.30 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.12 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.73 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.31 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 31%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Club Brugge KV 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.