Charleroi 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Charleroi (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Charleroi face AS Eupen.

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Match Analysis

Charleroi host AS Eupen at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

AS Eupen — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

AS Eupen away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Charleroi have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Charleroi hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for AS Eupen and 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Jan 2024, ended Charleroi 1–0 AS Eupen — a Charleroi win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Charleroi and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

AS Eupen in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 54% versus AS Eupen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 52% | AS Eupen 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.854 / defence 1.130 | AS Eupen attack 0.627 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. AS Eupen's attack rating of 0.627 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Charleroi's last 63 games and AS Eupen's last 64.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 24% | AS Eupen 19%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.76 | Draw 4.10 | AS Eupen 5.33. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 60% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 20% (last 10 away games).

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