Charleroi 1-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Antwerp at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antwerp have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Antwerp arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Antwerp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 67% | Antwerp 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.36 xG and Antwerp 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.945 / defence 1.173 | Antwerp attack 0.896 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.475. Data: 48 Charleroi games / 48 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 42%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Antwerp 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 90% | Antwerp 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Charleroi 1.36 / Antwerp 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.945 / def 1.173 | Antwerp attack 0.896 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Antwerp xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Charleroi 1 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 33% chance of winning, Antwerp a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Antwerp (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.94x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.90x) against Charleroi's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
33%
3.00
25%
4.06
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.91
1.55
Antwerp xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.55 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 54 games, going 22W 11D 21L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.85 PPG from 54 outings (31W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 10W 6D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.81 points per game from 26 outings (15W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.59 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 11D 21L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 31W 7D 16L in their last 54 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.38 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Antwerp in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 50%, Antwerp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charleroi) and 46% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antwerp in 42%; Charleroi have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charleroi's recent matches and 50% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charleroi's recent games and 46% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.36 xG and Antwerp 1.55 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Antwerp attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 33% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 42%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 67%, Antwerp 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.