Charleroi 1-3 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Charleroi, 1.50 for Anderlecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 53% and Anderlecht 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 60% | Anderlecht 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.43 xG and Anderlecht 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.984 / defence 0.892 | Anderlecht attack 0.716 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.478. Data: 15 Charleroi games / 15 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Anderlecht 4.00. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 29% | Anderlecht 57% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Charleroi 1.43 / Anderlecht 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.984 / def 0.892 | Anderlecht attack 0.716 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Anderlecht xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Anderlecht kick off?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Charleroi 1 - 3 Anderlecht.
Where is Charleroi vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Anderlecht part of?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charleroi and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in?
Charleroi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.98x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.72x) against Charleroi's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.73
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.37
0.94
Anderlecht xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.94 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 7W 5D 3L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 5W 7D 3L from 15 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Charleroi against 1.47 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.87 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 5W 7D 3L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Anderlecht away?
Charleroi's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.57 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Anderlecht have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 29%, Anderlecht 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Charleroi) and 43% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 43% of games; Anderlecht in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Charleroi's recent matches and 57% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Charleroi's recent games and 43% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Charleroi 1-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.43 xG and Anderlecht 0.94 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Anderlecht attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 25%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Anderlecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 60%, Anderlecht 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.73 PPG, Anderlecht 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.