Cercle Brugge 2-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Cercle Brugge welcome OH Leuven to Jan Breydelstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cercle Brugge — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge's home record at Jan Breydelstadion: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Cercle Brugge) versus 1.30 (OH Leuven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cercle Brugge register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OH Leuven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cercle Brugge, 1 for OH Leuven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with OH Leuven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
OH Leuven trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cercle Brugge 59% and OH Leuven 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 49% | OH Leuven 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 2.02 xG and OH Leuven 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 1.151 / defence 0.908 | OH Leuven attack 1.126 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.466. Data: 49 Cercle Brugge games / 49 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 50% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 29%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | OH Leuven 3.45. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 60% | OH Leuven 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 50% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Cercle Brugge 2.02 / OH Leuven 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 1.151 / def 0.908 | OH Leuven attack 1.126 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.50
OH Leuven xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven?
Cercle Brugge 2 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven part of?
Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 50% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven?
Record (2 meetings): Cercle Brugge 0W | Draws 1 | OH Leuven 1W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cercle Brugge's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
50%
2.01
22%
4.65
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
3.52
1.50
OH Leuven xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
4%
26.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.50 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 17W 13D 19L from 49 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 18L across 49 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.31 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 9W 7D 8L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.45 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 16W 15D 18L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or OH Leuven away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.42 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cercle Brugge
3
Draws
2
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 5, OH Leuven have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when OH Leuven 0-2 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 54%, OH Leuven 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cercle Brugge) and 67% (OH Leuven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cercle Brugge's games and 67% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 67% of OH Leuven's.
Do Cercle Brugge and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cercle Brugge edge out OH Leuven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 2.02 xG and OH Leuven 1.50 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.15 / defence 0.91 against OH Leuven attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 50% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 29%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 49%, OH Leuven 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.31 PPG, OH Leuven 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.