Cercle Brugge 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Cercle Brugge welcome Antwerp to Jan Breydelstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cercle Brugge — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 4L across 6 games at Jan Breydelstadion this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Antwerp's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Cercle Brugge's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cercle Brugge register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Antwerp in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Antwerp in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cercle Brugge 75% and Antwerp 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 58% | Antwerp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 0.92 xG and Antwerp 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.643 / defence 1.240 | Antwerp attack 0.900 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.515. Cercle Brugge's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Cercle Brugge games / 12 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 20% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 56%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Antwerp 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cercle Brugge 67% | Antwerp 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 20% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Cercle Brugge 0.92 / Antwerp 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.643 / def 1.240 | Antwerp attack 0.900 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Antwerp xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Cercle Brugge 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 20% chance of winning, Antwerp a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Antwerp (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.64x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
20%
4.90
24%
4.15
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.61
1.69
Antwerp xG
4.90
20%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
4%
26.57
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.69 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 3D 7L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cercle Brugge's home form reads 0W 2D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Antwerp in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 0.33 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Antwerp won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
7
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 1, Antwerp have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cercle Brugge 0-4 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cercle Brugge at 67%, Antwerp at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cercle Brugge) and 67% (Antwerp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cercle Brugge have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cercle Brugge's games and 83% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 67% of Antwerp's.
Do Cercle Brugge and Antwerp tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Cercle Brugge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Cercle Brugge 0-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 0.92 xG and Antwerp 1.69 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cercle Brugge fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.64 / defence 1.24 against Antwerp attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 20% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 56%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 58%, Antwerp 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.