AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise meet at Stadion am Kehrweg in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
AS Eupen's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Eupen have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadion am Kehrweg — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AS Eupen, 1 for Union St. Gilloise and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 52% versus Union St. Gilloise 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 55% | Union St. Gilloise 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.31 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.777 / defence 1.025 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.115 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.416. AS Eupen's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 AS Eupen games / 42 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 31% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 45%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Union St. Gilloise 2.22. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | Union St. Gilloise 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 31% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG AS Eupen 1.31 / Union St. Gilloise 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.777 / def 1.025 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.115 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Union St. Gilloise xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
AS Eupen 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 31% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.78) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.11x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
31%
3.22
24%
4.11
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.93
1.62
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.62 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Eupen come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 8D 24L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.02 PPG from 42 outings (26W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Eupen's home form reads 5W 4D 12L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 2.19 points per game from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Eupen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 10W 8D 24L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 26W 7D 9L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.90 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.19 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
1
Draws
5
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2023, when AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 57%, Union St. Gilloise 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AS Eupen) and 57% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 43%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 48% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AS Eupen's recent games and 57% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out AS Eupen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat AS Eupen 1-2 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.31 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 31% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 45%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 55%, Union St. Gilloise 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.