AS Eupen 1-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as AS Eupen welcome Genk to Stadion am Kehrweg. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, AS Eupen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's home record at Stadion am Kehrweg: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Genk — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Genk's 2.70 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of AS Eupen's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AS Eupen, 2 for Genk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–4 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Genk trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 55% versus Genk 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 57% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.06 xG and Genk 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.831 / defence 1.180 | Genk attack 1.209 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.338. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 AS Eupen games / 56 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 20% | Draw 23% | Genk 57%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Genk (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 20% | Draw 23% | Genk 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG AS Eupen 1.06 / Genk 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.831 / def 1.180 | Genk attack 1.209 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Genk (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Genk xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Genk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Genk kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Genk?
AS Eupen 1 - 1 Genk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Genk part of?
AS Eupen vs Genk is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 20% chance of winning, Genk a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AS Eupen and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): AS Eupen 1W | Draws 0 | Genk 2W.
What form are AS Eupen and Genk in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Genk (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 0.83x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
20%
4.98
23%
4.30
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.97
1.91
Genk xG
4.98
20%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
15%
6.76
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
3%
33.63
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.91 for Genk, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Eupen come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 10D 32L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.95 PPG from 56 outings (34W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Eupen's home form reads 7W 4D 16L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.48 points per game from 27 outings (12W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.14 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Genk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 14W 10D 32L in their last 56 games (0.93 PPG), while Genk have gone 34W 7D 15L in their last 56 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.93 PPG; Genk away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Genk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Genk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
1
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Genk?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2023, when AS Eupen 1-3 Genk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 56%, Genk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AS Eupen) and 59% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AS Eupen's games and 56% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of AS Eupen's matches and 59% of Genk's.
Do AS Eupen and Genk tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Genk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen and Genk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen and Genk finished level at 1-1 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.06 xG and Genk 1.91 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Genk landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Genk attack 1.21 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 20% | Draw 23% | Genk 57%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 57%, Genk 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.