AS Eupen 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Eupen host Antwerp at Stadion am Kehrweg in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AS Eupen have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Eupen's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadion am Kehrweg this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Antwerp have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antwerp away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Antwerp — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, AS Eupen have won 0, Antwerp 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2021, ended 2–4 with Antwerp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 57% versus Antwerp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 60% | Antwerp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.16 xG and Antwerp 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.952 / defence 1.036 | Antwerp attack 1.113 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.159. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 AS Eupen games / 37 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 32% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 41%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Antwerp 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: AS Eupen 40% | Antwerp 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 32% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG AS Eupen 1.16 / Antwerp 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.952 / def 1.036 | Antwerp attack 1.113 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Antwerp xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Antwerp kick off?
AS Eupen vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
AS Eupen 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is AS Eupen vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Antwerp part of?
AS Eupen vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 32% chance of winning, Antwerp a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AS Eupen and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Antwerp?
Record (2 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are AS Eupen and Antwerp in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.68
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.50
1.34
Antwerp xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.34 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 9W 8D 20L from 37 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Eupen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 11L across 37 games — 1.84 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 5W 3D 9L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 10W 1D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.46 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Antwerp in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 9W 8D 20L in their last 37 games (0.95 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 21W 5D 11L in their last 37 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.06 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.82 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Antwerp in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and Antwerp runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Antwerp won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AS Eupen
0
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Antwerp?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 1, Antwerp have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 59%, Antwerp 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (AS Eupen) and 41% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 47%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 47% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of AS Eupen's recent games and 41% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Antwerp tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out AS Eupen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.16 xG and Antwerp 1.34 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Antwerp attack 1.11 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 32% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 41%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 60%, Antwerp 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.