Antwerp 0-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 5W 2D 3L at Bosuilstadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 57% versus Union St. Gilloise 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | Union St. Gilloise 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.01 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.950 / defence 1.050 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.466 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.307. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.466 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Antwerp games / 34 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 18% | Draw 21% | Union St. Gilloise 61%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Union St. Gilloise 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 18% | Draw 21% | Union St. Gilloise 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Antwerp 1.01 / Union St. Gilloise 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.950 / def 1.050 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.466 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Union St. Gilloise xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 18% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 0.95x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
18%
5.44
21%
4.74
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.03
2.01
Union St. Gilloise xG
5.44
18%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
2%
40.73
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Antwerp and 2.01 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 19W 6D 10L from 35 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 25W 5D 5L across 35 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antwerp heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 14W 2D 1L across 17 trips, a 2.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.31 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 19W 6D 10L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 25W 5D 5L in their last 35 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.82 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.59 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
3
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 59%, Union St. Gilloise 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Antwerp and 71% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Antwerp's games and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Antwerp's matches and 71% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antwerp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 0-0 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.01 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.01 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.47 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 18% | Draw 21% | Union St. Gilloise 61%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Union St. Gilloise 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.