Antwerp 6-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Antwerp at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bosuilstadion plays host to Antwerp versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antwerp at Bosuilstadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion.
Kortrijk have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Antwerp's favour (2.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Antwerp 2W, Kortrijk 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Antwerp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Antwerp half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 33% versus Kortrijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 42% | Kortrijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.71 xG and Kortrijk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.039 / defence 0.752 | Kortrijk attack 1.070 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.272. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Antwerp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Antwerp games / 36 Kortrijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 54% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 23%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Kortrijk 4.35. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 40% | Kortrijk 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 54% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Antwerp 1.71 / Kortrijk 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.039 / def 0.752 | Kortrijk attack 1.070 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Kortrijk xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Kortrijk kick off?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Antwerp 6 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is Antwerp vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Kortrijk part of?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 54% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Antwerp and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Record (4 meetings): Antwerp 2W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 2W.
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.04) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (1.07x) against Antwerp's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.18
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.73
1.02
Kortrijk xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
24.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.02 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 20W 8D 8L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk's form line: 8W 7D 21L from 36 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Antwerp are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Antwerp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 4W 2D 12L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.08 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 20W 8D 8L in their last 36 games (1.89 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 8W 7D 21L in their last 36 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Kortrijk away?
Antwerp's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.33 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Antwerp go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Antwerp
0
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 6, Kortrijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 39%, Kortrijk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antwerp) and 67% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Antwerp's recent matches and 67% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Antwerp's matches and 67% of Kortrijk's.
Do Antwerp and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Kortrijk 6-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.71 xG and Kortrijk 1.02 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kortrijk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.04 / defence 0.75 against Kortrijk attack 1.07 / defence 1.23, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 54% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 23%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 42%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kortrijk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.