Antwerp 3-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 42%, yet in-form Anderlecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antwerp vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antwerp have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Antwerp are significantly better at Bosuilstadion than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Anderlecht away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Anderlecht are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antwerp have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Anderlecht in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antwerp lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Anderlecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 40% versus Anderlecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.51 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.155 / defence 0.845 | Anderlecht attack 1.305 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Antwerp games / 63 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 42% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 32%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Anderlecht 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Anderlecht (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | Anderlecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 42% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Antwerp 1.51 / Anderlecht 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.155 / def 0.845 | Anderlecht attack 1.305 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Anderlecht xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Anderlecht kick off?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Antwerp 3 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Antwerp vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Anderlecht part of?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 42% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antwerp and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
Record (3 meetings): Antwerp 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Antwerp and Anderlecht in?
Antwerp (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.16) and Anderlecht's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.30x) against Antwerp's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
42%
2.35
25%
3.99
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.81
1.29
Anderlecht xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.29 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp come into this having played 72 games, going 33W 18D 21L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (35W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Antwerp against 1.71 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antwerp's home form reads 20W 8D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.51 points per game from 35 outings (14W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.64 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 33W 18D 21L in their last 72 games (1.62 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 35W 18D 19L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Anderlecht away?
Antwerp's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.94 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
4
Draws
5
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Anderlecht have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Antwerp 2-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 46%, Anderlecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 51% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Anderlecht in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Antwerp's recent matches and 60% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antwerp's recent games and 51% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Anderlecht 3-1 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.51 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.16 / defence 0.84 against Anderlecht attack 1.30 / defence 0.83, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 42% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 32%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.62 PPG, Anderlecht 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.