Anderlecht 2-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees St. Truiden travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 December 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Anderlecht — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 4W 4D 1L at Lotto Park — 1.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.56 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.62 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Anderlecht have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 28% of cases; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
St. Truiden trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 72% and St. Truiden 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 61% | St. Truiden 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.94 xG and St. Truiden 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.350 / defence 1.240 | St. Truiden attack 0.650 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.477. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Anderlecht games / 18 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 55% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 23%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | St. Truiden 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 89% | St. Truiden 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 55% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Anderlecht 1.94 / St. Truiden 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.350 / def 1.240 | St. Truiden attack 0.650 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.19
St. Truiden xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kick off?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 14 December 2021 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Anderlecht 2 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden part of?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 55% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Anderlecht and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.35x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.54
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.13
1.19
St. Truiden xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
14%
6.95
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
3%
30.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.19 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 8W 7D 3L from 18 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 9L across 18 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 4W 4D 0L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.17 PPG overall record — St. Truiden travel well.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.06 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or St. Truiden away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.00 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Anderlecht
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 88%, St. Truiden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Anderlecht) and 38% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Anderlecht's games and 38% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Anderlecht's recent games and 38% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 2-0 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.94 xG and St. Truiden 1.19 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.35 / defence 1.24 against St. Truiden attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 55% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 23%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 61%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.