Anderlecht 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lotto Park plays host to Anderlecht versus Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Anderlecht have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 6W 3D 1L at Lotto Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 57% versus Antwerp 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 53% | Antwerp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.57 xG and Antwerp 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.311 / defence 1.022 | Antwerp attack 0.852 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.340. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Anderlecht games / 30 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 46% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 28%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 3.57. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 60% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 46% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Anderlecht 1.57 / Antwerp 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.311 / def 1.022 | Antwerp attack 0.852 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Antwerp xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Antwerp kick off?
Anderlecht vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Anderlecht 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Anderlecht vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Antwerp part of?
Anderlecht vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 46% chance of winning, Antwerp a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Anderlecht and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Antwerp in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Antwerp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Anderlecht's attack rating (1.31) and Antwerp's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.85x) against Anderlecht's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.90
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Antwerp xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.17 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 15W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 17W 5D 8L from 30 games, 1.87 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.87 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 9W 2D 4L from 15 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.70 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 17W 5D 8L in their last 30 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Antwerp away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.93 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Antwerp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Anderlecht
4
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 5, Antwerp have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Antwerp 2-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 67%, Antwerp 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Anderlecht) and 47% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Anderlecht's games and 60% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Anderlecht's recent games and 47% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Antwerp tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Antwerp 2-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.57 xG and Antwerp 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.31 / defence 1.02 against Antwerp attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 46% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 28%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 53%, Antwerp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.83 PPG, Antwerp 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.