Zulte Waregem 0-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zulte Waregem face SK Beveren.

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Full Analysis

Elindus Arena plays host to Zulte Waregem versus SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form

Zulte Waregem (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

SK Beveren have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, SK Beveren have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 2.00 for SK Beveren. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Zulte Waregem edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Zulte Waregem 3–0 SK Beveren — a Zulte Waregem win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 67% versus SK Beveren 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 63% | SK Beveren 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zulte Waregem surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while SK Beveren have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.04 xG and SK Beveren 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.891 / defence 1.171 | SK Beveren attack 1.040 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.442. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 19 games and SK Beveren's last 41.

Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 22% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 54%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.49 | Draw 4.26 | SK Beveren 1.84. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 70% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 30% (last 10 away games).

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