Zulte Waregem 1-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 54%, yet in-form Zulte Waregem provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zulte Waregem welcome KRC Genk II to Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, KRC Genk II stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
KRC Genk II away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Zulte Waregem are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Zulte Waregem's games and 80% of KRC Genk II's (from Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Zulte Waregem, 0 for KRC Genk II and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Zulte Waregem 4–2 KRC Genk II — a Zulte Waregem win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 67% and KRC Genk II 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 65% | KRC Genk II 61%). Note also that KRC Genk II surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Zulte Waregem recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG and KRC Genk II 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.910 / defence 1.216 | KRC Genk II attack 1.075 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.526. Zulte Waregem's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing KRC Genk II's projected output up. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 17 games and KRC Genk II's last 39.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 54%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.11 | Draw 4.62 | KRC Genk II 1.85. KRC Genk II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.28 / 2.00) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 60% (last 10 home games) | KRC Genk II 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Zulte Waregem 1.28 / KRC Genk II 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.910 / def 1.216 | KRC Genk II attack 1.075 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.00
KRC Genk II xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II part of?
Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 24% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.91x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 17 games and KRC Genk II's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
24%
4.11
22%
4.62
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.28
2.00
KRC Genk II xG
4.11
24%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
3%
30.29
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.00 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 15W 11D 23L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 27L across 49 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.14 PPG, KRC Genk II on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 5W 5D 14L from their last 24 home games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 63%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs KRC Genk II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 11W 11D 27L in their last 49 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or KRC Genk II away?
KRC Genk II's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.83 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 3, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Zulte Waregem 3-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 71%, KRC Genk II at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zulte Waregem and 62% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Zulte Waregem's games and 67% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 62% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 75% of KRC Genk II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG and KRC Genk II 2.00 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KRC Genk II landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against KRC Genk II attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 17/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 54%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 65%, KRC Genk II 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.14 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.