Standard Liège II 1-4 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Standard Liège II face SK Beveren.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees SK Beveren travel to Stade de la Cité de l'Oie to take on Standard Liège II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liège II stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liège II at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SK Beveren are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Standard Liège II have won 0, SK Beveren 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liège II in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 56% versus SK Beveren 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 60% | SK Beveren 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 0.90 xG and SK Beveren 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 1.020 / defence 1.079 | SK Beveren attack 1.016 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.419. SK Beveren's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Standard Liège II games / 38 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 22% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 53%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | SK Beveren 1.89. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liège II 50% | SK Beveren 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade de la Cité de l'Oie • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 22% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Standard Liège II 0.90 / SK Beveren 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 1.020 / def 1.079 | SK Beveren attack 1.016 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.55
SK Beveren xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren kick off?
Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren?
Standard Liège II 1 - 4 SK Beveren.
Where is Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren part of?
Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 22% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Standard Liège II and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and SK Beveren?
Record (3 meetings): Standard Liège II 0W | Draws 1 | SK Beveren 2W.
What form are Standard Liège II and SK Beveren in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liège II's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Standard Liège II's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
22%
4.57
26%
3.92
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
2.46
1.55
SK Beveren xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
5%
21.64
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.55 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Standard Liège II have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 12D 26L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 27W 13D 8L from 48 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liège II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liège II have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 10W 9D 5L from 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liège II are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.08 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 10W 12D 26L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 27W 13D 8L in their last 48 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 1.08 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Standard Liège II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liège II have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SK Beveren have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jan 2024, when SK Beveren won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liège II's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Standard Liège II
1
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 0, SK Beveren have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Standard Liège II 1-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liège II 67%, SK Beveren 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Standard Liège II and 58% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Standard Liège II's games and 46% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Standard Liège II's matches and 58% of SK Beveren's.
Do Standard Liège II and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Standard Liège II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Standard Liège II 1-4 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 0.90 xG and SK Beveren 1.55 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against SK Beveren attack 1.02 / defence 0.78, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 22% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 53%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 60%, SK Beveren 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.