SK Beveren 3-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethielstadion plays host to SK Beveren versus Zulte Waregem in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethielstadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethielstadion.
Zulte Waregem's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Zulte Waregem are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SK Beveren 1W, Zulte Waregem 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Zulte Waregem winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 44% versus Zulte Waregem 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 52% | Zulte Waregem 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.02 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.017 / defence 0.698 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.016 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.342. Zulte Waregem's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 SK Beveren games / 52 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 36% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 32%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Zulte Waregem 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 40% | Zulte Waregem 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 36% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG SK Beveren 1.02 / Zulte Waregem 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.017 / def 0.698 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.016 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zulte Waregem xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
SK Beveren 3 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem part of?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 36% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 2W.
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.02) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.02x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.10
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
1.97
0.95
Zulte Waregem xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.95 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 22W 14D 16L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 29W 12D 11L from 52 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.90 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 6D 4L from 25 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.85 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 22W 14D 16L in their last 52 games (1.54 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 29W 12D 11L in their last 52 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.72 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.04 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
From 5 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 52%, Zulte Waregem 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SK Beveren) and 60% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 36%; SK Beveren have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SK Beveren's games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SK Beveren's matches and 60% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.02 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.95 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.02 / defence 0.70 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 36% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 32%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 52%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.54 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.