SK Beveren 0-0 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Seraing United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Seraing United meet at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Freethielstadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Seraing United (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Seraing United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Seraing United's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. SK Beveren's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Seraing United's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Seraing United in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SK Beveren 1W, Seraing United 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Seraing United — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 53% and Seraing United 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 62% | Seraing United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.83 xG and Seraing United 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.251 / defence 0.969 | Seraing United attack 0.966 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.516. SK Beveren carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 SK Beveren games / 34 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 23% | Seraing United 30%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Seraing United 3.33. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 70% | Seraing United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Seraing United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 23% | Seraing United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG SK Beveren 1.83 / Seraing United 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.251 / def 0.969 | Seraing United attack 0.966 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.516 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Seraing United xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Seraing United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Seraing United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Seraing United?
SK Beveren 0 - 0 Seraing United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Seraing United part of?
SK Beveren vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 47% chance of winning, Seraing United a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SK Beveren and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Seraing United?
Record (2 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 1 | Seraing United 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Seraing United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Seraing United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.25) and Seraing United's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seraing United's attack (0.97x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.41
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.25
1.42
Seraing United xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.42 for Seraing United, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Seraing United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 15W 8D 11L from 34 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Seraing United, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 17L across 34 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Seraing United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seraing United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 9W 3D 5L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seraing United's away record stands at 3W 7D 7L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 1.09 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Seraing United in 71%.
Last 34 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Seraing United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Seraing United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 15W 8D 11L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 6W 11D 17L in their last 34 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Seraing United away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.76 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SK Beveren have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Seraing United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
2
Draws
0
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Seraing United?
From 6 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Seraing United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Seraing United 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Seraing United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Seraing United see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for SK Beveren, 71% for Seraing United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (SK Beveren) and 41% (Seraing United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Seraing United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SK Beveren's games and 71% of Seraing United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SK Beveren's matches and 41% of Seraing United's.
Do SK Beveren and Seraing United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Seraing United in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SK Beveren's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 5, as SK Beveren and Seraing United drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.83 xG and Seraing United 1.42 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Seraing United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Seraing United attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 47% | Draw 23% | Seraing United 30%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 62%, Seraing United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Seraing United's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.