SK Beveren 0-2 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Royal Excel Mouscron at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as SK Beveren welcome Royal Excel Mouscron to Freethielstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Freethielstadion, SK Beveren have gone 2W 0D 3L this season (5 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Royal Excel Mouscron stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Royal Excel Mouscron's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 0.90 (Royal Excel Mouscron). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SK Beveren, 0 for Royal Excel Mouscron and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Royal Excel Mouscron in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 64% versus Royal Excel Mouscron 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Royal Excel Mouscron 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.56 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.970 / defence 1.403 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.765 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.540. Royal Excel Mouscron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 SK Beveren games / 11 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 33% | Draw 30% | Royal Excel Mouscron 37%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Royal Excel Mouscron 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Royal Excel Mouscron as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Royal Excel Mouscron offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Royal Excel Mouscron 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 33% | Draw 30% | Royal Excel Mouscron 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 67% | xG SK Beveren 1.56 / Royal Excel Mouscron 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.970 / def 1.403 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.765 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Royal Excel Mouscron (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
SK Beveren 0 - 2 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 33% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Royal Excel Mouscron the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 0 | Royal Excel Mouscron 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 0.97x the league average against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Royal Excel Mouscron's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Royal Excel Mouscron Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.38
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.21
1.65
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.65 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 2D 4L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Royal Excel Mouscron sit at 0.82 PPG from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SK Beveren's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Royal Excel Mouscron have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Royal Excel Mouscron are on 1.00 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Royal Excel Mouscron away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.20 PPG; Royal Excel Mouscron away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when SK Beveren won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Royal Excel Mouscron specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when SK Beveren 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 60%, Royal Excel Mouscron 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SK Beveren and 80% for Royal Excel Mouscron. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Royal Excel Mouscron?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 60% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SK Beveren's matches and 80% of Royal Excel Mouscron's.
Do SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Royal Excel Mouscron cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Royal Excel Mouscron beat SK Beveren 0-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.56 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.65 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.97 / defence 1.40 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 33% | Draw 30% | Royal Excel Mouscron 37%, with Royal Excel Mouscron to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 64%, Royal Excel Mouscron 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Royal Excel Mouscron winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.