SK Beveren 4-3 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as SK Beveren take on Excelsior Virton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Excelsior Virton travel to Freethielstadion to take on SK Beveren. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior Virton stand at 1W 3D 2L from 6 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior Virton away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Excelsior Virton in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 50% versus Excelsior Virton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 67% | Excelsior Virton 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 0.80 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.676 / defence 1.232 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.574 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.461. SK Beveren's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 SK Beveren games / 6 Excelsior Virton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 24% | Draw 40% | Excelsior Virton 36%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 4.17 | Draw 2.50 | Excelsior Virton 2.78. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 50% | Excelsior Virton 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (6 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 24% | Draw 40% | Excelsior Virton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG SK Beveren 0.80 / Excelsior Virton 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.676 / def 1.232 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.574 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Excelsior Virton xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
SK Beveren 4 - 3 Excelsior Virton.
Where is SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton part of?
SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 24% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 36% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.68) and Excelsior Virton's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior Virton's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (6/6 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.21
40%
2.49
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
1.83
1.03
Excelsior Virton xG
4.21
24%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.03 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 3W 0D 3L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior Virton, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior Virton heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jan 2022, when SK Beveren won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Excelsior Virton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
2
Draws
0
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton?
From 6 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Excelsior Virton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2022, when Excelsior Virton 0-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 50%, Excelsior Virton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SK Beveren) and 17% (Excelsior Virton).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 33% of games; Excelsior Virton in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Excelsior Virton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 50% of Excelsior Virton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SK Beveren's recent games and 17% of Excelsior Virton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat Excelsior Virton 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Excelsior Virton 4-3 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 0.80 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.03 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior Virton outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.57 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/6 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 24% | Draw 40% | Excelsior Virton 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a SK Beveren win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 67%, Excelsior Virton 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. SK Beveren scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior Virton scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.