RWDM 1-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RWDM at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as RWDM welcome KRC Genk II to Edmond Machtens Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RWDM — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Edmond Machtens Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — RWDM are significantly better at Edmond Machtens Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KRC Genk II have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RWDM at 1.40 PPG versus KRC Genk II's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, RWDM have won 2, KRC Genk II 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with RWDM winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RWDM in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 49% versus KRC Genk II 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 54% | KRC Genk II 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 2.28 xG and KRC Genk II 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.330 / defence 0.927 | KRC Genk II attack 0.839 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.451. RWDM carry an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing RWDM's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 RWDM games / 39 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 62% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 16%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 6.25. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RWDM are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: RWDM 40% | KRC Genk II 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Edmond Machtens Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 62% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG RWDM 2.28 / KRC Genk II 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.330 / def 0.927 | KRC Genk II attack 0.839 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: RWDM (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.13
KRC Genk II xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs KRC Genk II kick off?
RWDM vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Edmond Machtens Stadium.
What was the final score in RWDM vs KRC Genk II?
RWDM 1 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is RWDM vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens Stadium.
What competition is RWDM vs KRC Genk II part of?
RWDM vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 62% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both RWDM and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and KRC Genk II?
Record (4 meetings): RWDM 2W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are RWDM and KRC Genk II in?
RWDM (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RWDM's attack rating (1.33) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.59
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
RWDM xG
Total xG
3.41
1.13
KRC Genk II xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
10%
9.77
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
59.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are RWDM and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for RWDM and 1.13 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RWDM come into this having played 39 games, going 22W 7D 10L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KRC Genk II sit at 0.62 PPG from 39 outings (6W 6D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RWDM's home form reads 14W 2D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, KRC Genk II have taken 0.55 points per game from 20 outings (3W 2D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RWDM are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.03 scored and 2.13 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 22W 7D 10L in their last 39 games (1.87 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 6W 6D 27L in their last 39 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or KRC Genk II away?
RWDM's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 2.20 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.55 PPG.
Have RWDM or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RWDM and KRC Genk II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when RWDM won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RWDM's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
RWDM
2
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, RWDM have won 3, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and KRC Genk II?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 45%, KRC Genk II 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for RWDM and 70% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; KRC Genk II in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play KRC Genk II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of RWDM's recent matches and 55% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RWDM vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of RWDM's matches and 70% of KRC Genk II's.
Do RWDM and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as RWDM and KRC Genk II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 2.28 xG and KRC Genk II 1.13 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RWDM fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.33 / defence 0.93 against KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 62% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 16%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 54%, KRC Genk II 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.