RWDM 1-3 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RWDM at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RWDM host Francs Borains at Edmond Machtens Stadium in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RWDM stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Edmond Machtens Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Francs Borains — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RWDM at 1.10 PPG versus Francs Borains's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, RWDM have won 2, Francs Borains 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with RWDM winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RWDM in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 48% versus Francs Borains 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 50% | Francs Borains 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.94 xG and Francs Borains 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.108 / defence 0.930 | Francs Borains attack 0.887 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.357. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing RWDM's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 RWDM games / 42 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 55% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 20%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Francs Borains 5.00. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RWDM are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 50% | Francs Borains 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Edmond Machtens Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 55% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG RWDM 1.94 / Francs Borains 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.108 / def 0.930 | Francs Borains attack 0.887 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: RWDM (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Francs Borains xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Francs Borains kick off?
RWDM vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Edmond Machtens Stadium.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Francs Borains?
RWDM 1 - 3 Francs Borains.
Where is RWDM vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens Stadium.
What competition is RWDM vs Francs Borains part of?
RWDM vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 55% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both RWDM and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Francs Borains?
Record (2 meetings): RWDM 2W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are RWDM and Francs Borains in?
RWDM (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RWDM's attack rating (1.11) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.97
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
RWDM xG
Total xG
3.06
1.12
Francs Borains xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
34.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are RWDM and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for RWDM and 1.12 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RWDM's recent record stands at 22W 8D 12L from 42 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 21L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 12W 3D 5L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Francs Borains's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RWDM are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.10 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 22W 8D 12L in their last 42 games (1.76 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Francs Borains away?
RWDM's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.95 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.10 PPG.
Have RWDM or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RWDM and Francs Borains runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RWDM's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
RWDM
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Francs Borains?
From 4 meetings on record, RWDM have won 2, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-0 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Francs Borains?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 45%, Francs Borains 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (RWDM) and 60% (Francs Borains).
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of RWDM's recent matches and 55% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RWDM vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of RWDM's recent games and 60% of Francs Borains's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RWDM and Francs Borains tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Francs Borains cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RWDM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat RWDM 1-3 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.94 xG and Francs Borains 1.12 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. RWDM fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Francs Borains outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Francs Borains attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 55% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 20%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Francs Borains win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 50%, Francs Borains 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Francs Borains's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.