RAAL La Louvière 5-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as RAAL La Louvière face Lommel United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RAAL La Louvière host Lommel United at Stade Communal du Tivoli in Challenger Pro League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
RAAL La Louvière — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RAAL La Louvière's home record over their last 5 home games: 3W 1D 1L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from their last 5 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RAAL La Louvière 2.00 PPG, Lommel United 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
RAAL La Louvière trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Lommel United trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RAAL La Louvière 64% and Lommel United 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 46% | Lommel United 54%). Note also that Lommel United surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while RAAL La Louvière recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.22 xG and Lommel United 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.043 / defence 0.919 | Lommel United attack 1.311 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.437. Lommel United have an above-average attack rating of 1.311, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from RAAL La Louvière's last 11 games and Lommel United's last 41.
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 27% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 49%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 3.70 | Draw 4.23 | Lommel United 2.03. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RAAL La Louvière's last 5 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RAAL La Louvière 40% (last 5 home games) | Lommel United 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Communal du Tivoli • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 27% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.22 / Lommel United 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.043 / def 0.919 | Lommel United attack 1.311 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Lommel United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United FAQs
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United?
RAAL La Louvière 5 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 12) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 27% chance of winning, Lommel United a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RAAL La Louvière's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RAAL La Louvière's last 11 games and Lommel United's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
27%
3.70
24%
4.23
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.96
1.73
Lommel United xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
5%
20.89
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.73 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, RAAL La Louvière have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 7W 2D 2L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Lommel United's form line: 5W 4D 2L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: RAAL La Louvière on 2.09 PPG, Lommel United on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RAAL La Louvière have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 5 home games (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 4W 1D 0L from their last 5 away games — 2.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.73 PPG overall record — Lommel United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.73 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RAAL La Louvière have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lommel United in 82%.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
RAAL La Louvière (Home) vs Lommel United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United Form FAQs
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 2.00 PPG; Lommel United away: 2.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
RAAL La Louvière
0
Draws
0
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, RAAL La Louvière have won 2, Lommel United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Lommel United 1-2 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 40%, Lommel United 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (RAAL La Louvière) and 80% (Lommel United).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Lommel United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of RAAL La Louvière's games and 80% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 80% of Lommel United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Lommel United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 100% of Lommel United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RAAL La Louvière run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière beat Lommel United 5-1 at Stade Communal du Tivoli, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.22 xG and Lommel United 1.73 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Lommel United attack 1.31 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 27% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 49%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual RAAL La Louvière win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 46%, Lommel United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 2.09 PPG, Lommel United 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RAAL La Louvière win broke the near-deadlock. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.