RAAL La Louvière 3-1 Liège – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RAAL La Louvière at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RAAL La Louvière vs Liège encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Communal du Tivoli plays host to RAAL La Louvière versus Liège in Challenger Pro League (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
RAAL La Louvière's record over their last 9 games: 6W 2D 1L (2.22 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings (33%).
RAAL La Louvière's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 1L across their last 4 home games (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Liège (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Liège's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.92 in RAAL La Louvière's favour (2.22 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
RAAL La Louvière half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Liège half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RAAL La Louvière 56% and Liège 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 33% | Liège 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.46 xG and Liège 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.915 / defence 0.983 | Liège attack 1.117 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.333. Liège's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RAAL La Louvière's projected output up. Data: built from RAAL La Louvière's last 9 games and Liège's last 39.
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 38% | Draw 25% | Liège 38%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 2.66 | Draw 4.02 | Liège 2.66. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — RAAL La Louvière 38% and Liège 38%, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RAAL La Louvière's last 4 home games and Liège's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RAAL La Louvière 25% (last 4 home games) | Liège 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Liège | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade Communal du Tivoli • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 38% | Draw 25% | Liège 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.46 / Liège 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.915 / def 0.983 | Liège attack 1.117 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — RAAL La Louvière and Liège level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Liège xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Liège FAQs
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Liège kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Liège kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Liège?
RAAL La Louvière 3 - 1 Liège.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Liège being played?
The match is being played at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Liège part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Liège is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Liège?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 38% chance of winning, Liège a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Liège?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Liège will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Liège have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RAAL La Louvière's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Liège's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Liège's attack (1.12x) against RAAL La Louvière's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from RAAL La Louvière's last 9 games and Liège's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RAAL La Louvière Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.02
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.93
1.46
Liège xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Liège Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Liège?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Liège expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.46 for Liège, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Liège?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, RAAL La Louvière have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 6W 2D 1L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Liège's form line: 2W 4D 3L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, RAAL La Louvière are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Liège.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RAAL La Louvière have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 4 home games (2W 1D 1L). That actually lags their 2.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Liège have gone 2W 0D 2L from their last 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Liège are on 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liège in 67%.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
Liège
Blended
RAAL La Louvière (Home) vs Liège (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
Liège
Blended
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Liège Form FAQs
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Liège in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 games (2.22 PPG), while Liège have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Liège away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.75 PPG; Liège away: 1.50 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Liège been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Liège in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
RAAL La Louvière
1
Draws
0
Liège
Recent Meetings
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Liège H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Liège?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, RAAL La Louvière have won 1, Liège have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Liège last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Liège 1-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Liège?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 25%, Liège 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (RAAL La Louvière) and 100% (Liège).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Liège away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Liège Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RAAL La Louvière and Liège matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 75% of Liège's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RAAL La Louvière and Liège matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 100% of Liège's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Liège matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 100% of Liège's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RAAL La Louvière cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Liège.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière beat Liège 3-1 at Stade Communal du Tivoli, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.46 xG and Liège 1.46 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Liège attack 1.12 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 38% | Draw 25% | Liège 38%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 33%, Liège 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Liège's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.