Patro Eisden 4-4 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Patro Eisden (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Patro Eisden face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees KRC Genk II travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Patro Eisden have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while KRC Genk II have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 4–1 with Patro Eisden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Patro Eisden and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 54% versus KRC Genk II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 46% | KRC Genk II 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.42 xG and KRC Genk II 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.845 / defence 0.723 | KRC Genk II attack 0.858 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.309. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Patro Eisden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Patro Eisden's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Patro Eisden games / 50 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 51% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 22%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | KRC Genk II 4.55. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Patro Eisden 40% | KRC Genk II 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 51% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Patro Eisden 1.42 / KRC Genk II 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.845 / def 0.723 | KRC Genk II attack 0.858 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
0.81
KRC Genk II xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden 4 - 4 KRC Genk II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II part of?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 51% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Record (5 meetings): Patro Eisden 4W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.68
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.23
0.81
KRC Genk II xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
19.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 0.81 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 24W 14D 12L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II's form line: 8W 9D 33L from 50 games, 0.66 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (13W 6D 6L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 3W 5D 17L from 25 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.08 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 24W 14D 12L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 8W 9D 33L in their last 50 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or KRC Genk II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.80 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
2
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 56%, KRC Genk II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Patro Eisden) and 68% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; KRC Genk II in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Patro Eisden's games and 60% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Patro Eisden's matches and 68% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 24, as Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II drew 4-4 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.42 xG and KRC Genk II 0.81 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II outscored their 0.81 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.84 / defence 0.72 against KRC Genk II attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 51% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 22%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 46%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.