Patro Eisden 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Patro Eisden (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Patro Eisden face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees KRC Genk II travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, KRC Genk II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for KRC Genk II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 3–1 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
KRC Genk II trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 48% versus KRC Genk II 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Patro Eisden 58% | KRC Genk II 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 2.96 xG and KRC Genk II 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.505 / defence 0.997 | KRC Genk II attack 0.839 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.374. Patro Eisden carry an above-average attack strength of 1.505 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Patro Eisden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Patro Eisden games / 50 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 74% | Draw 15% | KRC Genk II 12%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | KRC Genk II 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Patro Eisden (74%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.96 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 70% | KRC Genk II 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 74% | Draw 15% | KRC Genk II 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 65% | xG Patro Eisden 2.96 / KRC Genk II 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.505 / def 0.997 | KRC Genk II attack 0.839 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.15
KRC Genk II xG
65%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II part of?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 74% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Record (3 meetings): Patro Eisden 2W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.96. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.89
12%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
4.11
1.15
KRC Genk II xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
8.70
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
5%
19.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
1%
168.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.15 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 23W 16D 11L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II's form line: 13W 11D 26L from 50 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (13W 5D 7L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 5W 6D 14L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.44 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 70%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 23W 16D 11L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or KRC Genk II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.76 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
2
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 56%, KRC Genk II 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Patro Eisden and 72% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Patro Eisden's games and 72% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Patro Eisden's matches and 72% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 2.96 xG and KRC Genk II 1.15 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Patro Eisden fell 2.0 short of their projected output. KRC Genk II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.50 / defence 1.00 against KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 1.43, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 74% | Draw 15% | KRC Genk II 12%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 58%, KRC Genk II 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.