Patro Eisden 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 38%, yet in-form Kortrijk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Patrostadion to face Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Patro Eisden (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Patrostadion, Patro Eisden have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kortrijk's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Kortrijk arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kortrijk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Patro Eisden lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Patro Eisden — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 58% versus Kortrijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 51% | Kortrijk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.14 xG and Kortrijk 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.885 / defence 0.838 | Kortrijk attack 0.911 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Patro Eisden games / 18 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 33%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Kortrijk 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Patro Eisden as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kortrijk (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Patro Eisden 60% | Kortrijk 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Patro Eisden 1.14 / Kortrijk 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.885 / def 0.838 | Kortrijk attack 0.911 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kortrijk xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk?
Patro Eisden 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk part of?
Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 38% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Patro Eisden and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Kortrijk?
Record (1 meetings): Patro Eisden 0W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Kortrijk in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.91x) against Patro Eisden's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 47/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.42
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.18
1.04
Kortrijk xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.04 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 25W 16D 12L from 53 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 20L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Patro Eisden against 1.49 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Patro Eisden have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 10W 5D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.42 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 25W 16D 12L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 23W 10D 20L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Kortrijk away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.81 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Patro Eisden
0
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Kortrijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 1, Kortrijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Patro Eisden 1-0 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 67%, Kortrijk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Patro Eisden and 67% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Patro Eisden's games and 56% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Patro Eisden's matches and 67% of Kortrijk's.
Do Patro Eisden and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.14 xG and Kortrijk 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.89 / defence 0.84 against Kortrijk attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 33%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 51%, Kortrijk 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kortrijk's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.72 PPG, Kortrijk 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.