Patro Eisden 1-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Patro Eisden face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Patro Eisden welcome Dender to Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — last 5 games: 3W 1D 1L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Across their last 10 games, Dender have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dender away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Patro Eisden at 2.00 PPG versus Dender's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 100% of Patro Eisden's games and 60% of Dender's (from Patro Eisden's last 5 games and Dender's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Dender trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Patro Eisden 100% and Dender 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Patro Eisden 100% | Dender 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.36 xG and Dender 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.157 / defence 1.103 | Dender attack 0.899 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.382. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 5 games and Dender's last 27.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Dender 37%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.70 | Draw 3.90 | Dender 2.68. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Patro Eisden 37% and Dender 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Patro Eisden's last 5 games and Dender's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Patro Eisden 100% (last 5 games) | Dender 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Dender 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Patro Eisden 1.36 / Dender 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.157 / def 1.103 | Dender attack 0.899 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Patro Eisden and Dender level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dender xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Patro Eisden vs Dender FAQs
What time does Patro Eisden vs Dender kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Dender kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Patro Eisden 1 - 1 Dender.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Dender part of?
Patro Eisden vs Dender is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 37% chance of winning, Dender a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Patro Eisden and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Patro Eisden vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 1.16x the league average against Dender's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Patro Eisden's last 5 games and Dender's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.90
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.73
1.37
Dender xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Patro Eisden vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.37 for Dender, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 1L across 5 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Patro Eisden on 2.00 PPG, Dender on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dender in 80%.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
Patro Eisden (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Patro Eisden
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Patro Eisden vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Patro Eisden and Dender in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Dender have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Patro Eisden
2
Draws
1
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Patro Eisden vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Dender?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Patro Eisden have won 0, Dender have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Dender 1-0 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Patro Eisden at 100%, Dender at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Patro Eisden and 60% for Dender. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Patro Eisden vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Patro Eisden and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Patro Eisden's games and 80% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Patro Eisden and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Patro Eisden's matches and 60% of Dender's.
Do Patro Eisden and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 80% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 6, as Patro Eisden and Dender drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.36 xG and Dender 1.37 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Dender attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 5/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Dender 37%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 100%, Dender 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 90%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 2.00 PPG, Dender 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Patro Eisden managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.