Lommel United 1-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host SK Beveren at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 2W 1D 4L at Soevereinstadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 73% and SK Beveren 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lommel United 80% | SK Beveren 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.12 xG and SK Beveren 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.996 / defence 1.169 | SK Beveren attack 0.946 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.755. Data: 15 Lommel United games / 15 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 19% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 53%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | SK Beveren 1.89. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 71% | SK Beveren 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 19% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Lommel United 1.12 / SK Beveren 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.996 / def 1.169 | SK Beveren attack 0.946 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.755 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.94
SK Beveren xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Lommel United 1 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Lommel United vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs SK Beveren part of?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 19% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lommel United and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in?
Lommel United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.00x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
19%
5.36
28%
3.57
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Lommel United xG
Total xG
3.07
1.94
SK Beveren xG
5.36
19%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
14%
6.97
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
3%
37.33
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lommel United and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.94 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 3D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Lommel United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.53 PPG overall record — SK Beveren travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.87 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; SK Beveren in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 7W 2D 6L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.00 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lommel United
4
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 2, SK Beveren have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 71%, SK Beveren 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Lommel United and 71% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lommel United's games and 57% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Lommel United's matches and 71% of SK Beveren's.
Do Lommel United and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 16, as Lommel United and SK Beveren drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.12 xG and SK Beveren 1.94 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SK Beveren landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against SK Beveren attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 19% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 53%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 80%, SK Beveren 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.