Lommel United 2-3 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host SK Beveren at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.37 xG and SK Beveren 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SK Beveren attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Lommel United games / 0 SK Beveren games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 42% | Draw 35% | SK Beveren 24%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | SK Beveren 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 42% | Draw 35% | SK Beveren 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Lommel United 1.37 / SK Beveren 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SK Beveren attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.00
SK Beveren xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Lommel United 2 - 3 SK Beveren.
Where is Lommel United vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs SK Beveren part of?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 42% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lommel United and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.85x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
42%
2.41
35%
2.86
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.37
1.00
SK Beveren xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
16.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lommel United and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.00 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Pre-Season
SK Beveren
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lommel United
4
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 2, SK Beveren have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat Lommel United 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lommel United 2-3 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.37 xG and SK Beveren 1.00 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SK Beveren attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 42% | Draw 35% | SK Beveren 24%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a SK Beveren win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.