Lokeren-Temse 0-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lokeren-Temse and Deinze meet at Daknamstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Lokeren-Temse (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Lokeren-Temse have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Deinze are 1.80 PPG clear of Lokeren-Temse in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Lokeren-Temse — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Deinze — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 20% versus Deinze 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 40% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 0.97 xG and Deinze 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.823 / defence 1.155 | Deinze attack 1.136 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.378. Data: 5 Lokeren-Temse games / 35 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 20% | Draw 23% | Deinze 57%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Deinze 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Deinze (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lokeren-Temse 20% | Deinze 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 20% | Draw 23% | Deinze 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Lokeren-Temse 0.97 / Deinze 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.823 / def 1.155 | Deinze attack 1.136 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Deinze (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Deinze xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Lokeren-Temse 0 - 0 Deinze.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 20% chance of winning, Deinze a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Deinze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Deinze in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Deinze (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lokeren-Temse's attack rating (0.82) and Deinze's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (1.14x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
20%
5.08
23%
4.26
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.78
1.81
Deinze xG
5.08
20%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
3%
31.02
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.81 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lokeren-Temse come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 1D 4L for 0.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.80 PPG clear of Lokeren-Temse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Deinze in 60%.
Defensively: Deinze in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
Deinze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Deinze in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Deinze have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Lokeren-Temse or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Deinze in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Lokeren-Temse
1
Draws
0
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Deinze?
From 1 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, Deinze have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Lokeren-Temse 0-0 Deinze.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 20%, Deinze 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lokeren-Temse) and 60% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Deinze in 40%; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 60% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 60% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Deinze tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Deinze in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lokeren-Temse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse and Deinze finished level at 0-0 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 0.97 xG and Deinze 1.81 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Deinze landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Deinze attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 20% | Draw 23% | Deinze 57%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 40%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lokeren-Temse conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.