Liège 5-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liège vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Stade Rue de la Tonne to face Liège in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Liège have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Liège, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liège's home record at Stade Rue de la Tonne: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Liège, 1.30 for SK Beveren — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Liège lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Liège winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Liège half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 50% versus SK Beveren 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 50% | SK Beveren 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 0.92 xG and SK Beveren 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 0.800 / defence 1.090 | SK Beveren attack 0.949 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.386. Data: 26 Liège games / 48 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liège 24% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 49%. Fair-value odds: Liège 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | SK Beveren 2.04. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Liège 50% | SK Beveren 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Rue de la Tonne • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 24% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Liège 0.92 / SK Beveren 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 0.800 / def 1.090 | SK Beveren attack 0.949 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SK Beveren xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liège vs SK Beveren kick off?
Liège vs SK Beveren kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stade Rue de la Tonne.
What was the final score in Liège vs SK Beveren?
Liège 5 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Liège vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Rue de la Tonne.
What competition is Liège vs SK Beveren part of?
Liège vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 24% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Liège and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Liège vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): Liège 1W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 0W.
What form are Liège and SK Beveren in?
Liège (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Liège's attack rating (0.80) and SK Beveren's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (0.95x) against Liège's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 26/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
24%
4.15
27%
3.73
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Liège xG
Total xG
2.35
1.43
SK Beveren xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
6%
17.40
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Liège and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Liège and 1.43 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Liège have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 12W 3D 11L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Liège is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 11W 6D 9L from 26 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Liège against 1.50 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Liège have posted 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (7W 1D 5L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 3D 4L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liège are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.46 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liège and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 12W 3D 11L in their last 26 games (1.50 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 11W 6D 9L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or SK Beveren away?
Liège's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.69 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Liège or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liège have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liège won 5-1 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liège have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Liège
1
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and SK Beveren?
From 6 meetings on record, Liège have won 2, SK Beveren have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Liège and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SK Beveren 4-0 Liège.
Who has won more matches between Liège and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 46%, SK Beveren 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Liège) and 46% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: Liège keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SK Beveren in 46%; SK Beveren in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liège play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Liège's recent matches and 31% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liège vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Liège's recent games and 46% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liège and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Liège have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Liège run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liège beat SK Beveren 5-1 at Stade Rue de la Tonne, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 0.92 xG and SK Beveren 1.43 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against SK Beveren attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 24% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 49%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Liège win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 50%, SK Beveren 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liège 1.50 PPG, SK Beveren 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.