Liège 3-3 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 37%, yet in-form Liège provide a compelling counter-argument — this Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Rocourt plays host to Liège versus RSC Anderlecht II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Liège have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Liège have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Liège's home record at Stade de Rocourt: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Rocourt. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RSC Anderlecht II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RSC Anderlecht II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, RSC Anderlecht II have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Liège's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of RSC Anderlecht II's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Liège 0W, RSC Anderlecht II 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Liège half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
RSC Anderlecht II half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liège 52% and RSC Anderlecht II 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 58% | RSC Anderlecht II 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.26 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 0.830 / defence 0.974 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.910 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.457. Data: 33 Liège games / 33 RSC Anderlecht II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Liège 36% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 37%. Fair-value odds: Liège 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Liège (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Liège 30% | RSC Anderlecht II 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 36% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Liège 1.26 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 0.830 / def 0.974 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.910 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.29
RSC Anderlecht II xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Liège 3 - 3 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 36% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Liège and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (2 meetings): Liège 0W | Draws 1 | RSC Anderlecht II 1W.
What form are Liège and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Liège (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Liège's attack rating (0.83) and RSC Anderlecht II's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (0.91x) against Liège's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.75
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Liège xG
Total xG
2.55
1.29
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Liège and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Liège and 1.29 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Liège come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 5D 13L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Liège, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, RSC Anderlecht II sit at 1.03 PPG from 33 outings (8W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Liège carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Liège's home form reads 9W 2D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, RSC Anderlecht II have taken 1.38 points per game from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liège come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liège are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.27 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 70%.
Last 33 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Early Season
RSC Anderlecht II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liège and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 15W 5D 13L in their last 33 games (1.52 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Liège's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.81 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Liège or RSC Anderlecht II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liège have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, RSC Anderlecht II in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liège have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Liège
4
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 6 meetings on record, Liège have won 1, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Liège and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 0-0 Liège.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 44%, RSC Anderlecht II 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Liège) and 50% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Liège keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liège play RSC Anderlecht II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Liège's recent matches and 62% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liège vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Liège's recent games and 50% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liège and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Liège have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liège and RSC Anderlecht II share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liège and RSC Anderlecht II finished level at 3-3 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.26 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.29 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RSC Anderlecht II outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Liège 36% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 37%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 58%, RSC Anderlecht II 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liège (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.